NFL Week 5 Survivor Pool Picks
Another week and the Villain has moved on in the survivor pool. The games might have seen an upset or two with the Cardinals, Giants and Jets all notching wins. Many pools likely went against my advice to not take the New York Jets in a trap game against the Tennessee Titans but here we are. I picked the New Orleans Saints on the Survivor pool article but picked the Giants on the Tymeless Sunday Brunch. That was a tough one to call, I hope you all survived that pick. On to Week 5 as there are some nice matchups that should be able to move you along to the next week.
Running totals (based on top picks only)
Last week vs Best Picks: 2-1
Season vs Best Picks: 8-1
Trap games: 4-2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Miami Dolphins)
Photo Credit: USA Today
This is my most confident pick of the week but not sure if I want to go this route this week. My strategy is to save Tampa for later in the season, but there’s no time like the present. Tom Brady got through the emotional roller coaster in New England and got the win. He will be looking to bounce back against a Dolphins team that helped the Colts to their first win of the season. I picked the Colts to win, and Miami played their part to perfection.
Miami’s offense under Jacoby Brissett couldn’t move the ball until late in the 2nd half. This is layup for most, but I want to hold on to Tampa when they play the Bears in Week 7, Giants in Week 11, Colts in Week 12, or Jets in Week 17. There’s great matchups that they should get wins in, I would hold.
New England Patriots (at Houston Texans)
Photo Credit: USA Today
This is a game that screams survivor pick for most, but I took the Patriots in a game against the Jets already. Why do I like the Pats in this game, because Bill Belichick shows no mercy to rookie quarterbacks. Ask how Zack Wilson’s day against Bill went.
Houston is one of the worst teams and without Tyrod Taylor leading the offense this team has no shot. Davis Mills was 11 of 21 for 87 yards and 4 INTs in a game where they were behind and had to throw a lot to get into the game. Bill Belichick hates rookie quarterbacks, and this week will be no different. The only other game New England is a nice pick is in Week 17 against Jacksonville. If you have the Pats available, now is the time.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
Photo Credit: USA Today
This is the game I’m going with as the Baltimore Ravens always beats up on teams like this. Baltimore’s bully style of football is so perfect when they play a beat-up team like the Colts. The only thing that worries we is the defense, but I think the Ravens may have settled the defensive side of the ball with their 23-7 win in Denver. Carson Wentz had his best game as a Colt, but he's on two bad ankles against a defense that can get after him. Still no Nelson at guard worries me, this is my game to take the Ravens.
Lean Picks
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit Lions)
Photo Credit: USA Today
I’ve been doing survivor pools for a long time and one thing I’ve learned is to not trust Minnesota. And definitely don’t trust them when they are playing a divisional team. The Lions are seen as terrible because they are 0-4 so far. But the Loins have an average offense with Jared Goff that can put points up (21st in yards per play, 19th in rushing, and 15th in passing). They are a few plays away from being 2-2 with wins against the 49ers and the Ravens.
The Vikings defense played their best game against the Browns this week, but this is a defense that gave up almost 25 points per game. Minnesota's offense is solid, and Kirk Cousins is balling, but buyer beware on this game.
Trap Games
Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants)
Everyone will say the Giants had no business winning in New Orleans last week, but they didn’t see the game I saw. The Giants offense was moving for most of the game and the offense line has held up the last two weeks. Dallas has one of the best offenses in the league led by Dak Prescott and the defense is much improved. But the Cowboys let up 28 points to the Carolina Panthers offense led by Sam Darnold and no Christian McCaffery.
The Giants offense is still shaky, but they can score points on this defense. This has the potential to be a shootout and I wouldn’t be surprised if my Giants steal this game. I would stay away as the Cowboys have better matchups down the line (Falcons, WFT twice, Eagles).
Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
Photo Credit: USA Today
Tennessee likely knocked a lot of teams out survivor pools with their horrid performance against the Jets. This team relies on the run game to allow Ryan Tannehill to run play action. But with Julio Jones and A.J. Brown both banged up, defenses aren’t falling for the bait and Henry can be bottled up.
The Jacksonville Jaguars almost pulled off a win this past week against the Bengals. The offense was able to get things going and they should be able to build off their performance. The Titans’ defense was carved up by Zack Wilson and the Jets, this is another buyer beware game.
